To explore a set of probable contributory mechanisms that explain the spatial and temporal pattern of HeV emergence; including urban habituation and decreased migration
Type of Study:
Urban habituation increases the number of flying foxes in contact with human and domestic animal populations, and our models suggest that, in addition, decreased bat migratory behaviour could lead to a decline inpopulation immunity, giving rise to more intense outbreaks after local viral reintroduction. We also demonstrate that by incorporating waning maternal immunity into our models, the peak modelled prevalence coincides with the peak annual spill-over hazard for HeV.
Processes that alter flying fox food sources—such as drought and climate change—could both increase and synchronize the risk of HeV spillover. Identifying the mechanism linking seasonal host factorswith HeV emergence is critical to aid in forecasting outbreaks and developing control strategies.
Spatial SEIR model
Queensland and New South Wales
Response variable :
Number of infected individuals
14 known outbreak events, 200-800 simulated populations
Forests and urban areas
Plowright, R. K., Foley, P., Field, H. E., Dobson, A. P., Foley, J. E., Eby, P., Daszak, P. (2011) Urban habituation, ecological connectivity and epidemic dampening: the emergence of Hendra virus from flying foxes (Pteropus spp.). Proc. Biol. Sci. 278, 3703–12.